Emissions reductions by fossil fuels giant will still overshoot the 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement, experts say. 

A new study has looked at 6 emissions reduction scenarios from Shell, BP, Equinor and the International Energy Agency and found that only one plan, the International Energy Agency's ‘Net Zero by 2050’ scenario, is aligned with the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the other 5 plans all overshoot the 1.5°C warming limit significantly. 

The authors assessed scenarios against three criteria: not being likely (i.e. having a less than 66 per cent probability) to overshoot 1.5°C of warming and a 50 per cent chance of meeting 1.5°C by the end of the century; being very likely (90 per cent or better) to limit warming below 2°C; and achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions before the end of the century, as outlined in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. 

They suggest that 5 of the scenarios assessed overshoot the 1.5°C warming limit by a significant margin and, that of the 6, only the IEA’s ‘Net Zero by 2050’ scenario is aligned with the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C.  

The authors conclude that their findings underscore how scenario pathways that delay reductions in fossil fuel consumption run the risk of overshooting the 1.5°C goal. 

They argue that more transparency is needed on the part of energy sector actors to provide a full picture on the climate outcomes of the scenarios they produce.

The full study is accessible here.